美国想和中国签订什么样的贸易协议？ [美国媒体] What kind of trade deal with China does the US want? 2018-11-15 文所未闻
What kind of trade deal with China does the US want?
None, apparently. The US has asked for none and dropped the deal it was agreeing when Trump first announced tariffs.
Why do people think Trump wants a deal. He gets much more mileage out of conflict than he could out of any deal - especially as any deal would involve actually stating what changes were wanted, not just shouting ‘Cheat’.
Not that it matters very much - the tariffs will have little economic effect on either side (I am bored of giving the actual figures).
What is worrying is what the next step is in the ‘foreigners are to blame let’s hit them’ programme. The history of populism is that, as ‘solution’ after ‘solution’ fails, more extreme measures are used to keep up the pace. The US has already added sanctions on China (for buying arms from Russia), goading the Chinese in the South China Sea by sailing past, stopping an doing a ‘safety exercise’ and some claims of Chinese spying have arisen from Bloomberg (hotly refuted by Apple and Google). On Quora, a few Americans are starting to ask about war…
It should be remembered that this is a dispute about China selling cheap fairy lights to the US, which has just announced the lowest unemployment for 49 years. Now there’s something worth killing and dying for!
For those who think it cannot happen, remember that this Autumn sees the hundredth anniversary of the end of the First World War and we still do not know what it was for.
US has explicitly expressed what kind of deal it wants with the key features as below:
This was asked from day one.
The ultimate target is to change China to a real market economy which means:
1.SOEs should be down to a minimum
State owned companies have got huge loans and they are not efficient , which also mess up the global market. There are many of them sits on government bonds without producing anything (so called Zombie Companies).
2. non tariff barriers have to go
For instance foreign oil companies, insurance companies , telecome and media companies are not allowed to operate in China. Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Google and Quora itself is blocked in China.
3. subsidies have to go
Tata and Thyssen has to merge to face the over production of steel from China.
4. IP protections will be implemented in a real systematic approach.
Here are some IP cases that for you reference:
the list goes on and on.
As we see all these targets will not only benefit US, but also benefit china as a country and its citizens. The only entity that get hurts is the CCP. So it become very clear why the Chinese government is fighting it and what for.
I’m not confident that the US administration has a clear plan for what type of deal they are seeking.
Based on reports in the media, it appears that President Trump is seeking to:
gain greater access for American manufactured products into China
Reduce Chinese rules requiring access to American IP
Reduce the trade deficit or eliminate it altogether
If he can achieve the above then there should be a boost to US industry in terms of more jobs.
The problem Mr Trump faces is that it is American institutions that have sought out investment in China to improve their profit margins. If they have not directly invested they have sought product to reduce costs and American consumers have appreciated the benefit of lower cost items at places by Walmart.
The imposition of tarifs on Chinese products will in the short term lead to higher prices for American consumers. As a democracy the American administration is more vulnerable to public opinion than China. China has worked hard to establish its position in the world and will not want to be seen to be buckling to American demands.
I can’t see an easy out for either side at this time
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